Kairos V2.0
Purpose is strategic overview for effective choice-making in the fog of uncertainties. I avoid repeating things analysed extensively elsewhere. This framing/model is necessarily simplification of complex realities and as the saying goes, “all models are wrong, some are useful”.
Viral dis-ruption has led to un-ravelling and revealing of truths about anthropic operating systems and their dys-functional relationship with planetary dynamics. This is the moment of hyper / too many truths, not post-truth: one cannot continue their socially constructed business-as-usual without facing immediate consequences permeated in the reality.
It is correct that status quo attractor (homeostasis) and perceived short-term interest of the majority favours return to the business as usual (BAU). But here is one hypothesis:
Probability distribution for medium term social change has morphed into the multi-modal form. This “Kairos” opens up possibilities for significant shift in our social operating systems.
Meta-stable State 0: Business As Usual (BAU): as seen above, this was overwhelmingly likely scenario before this pandemic with relatively small variation in the medium term (~ next five years).
But as seen below, return to the BAU is relatively unlikely* following this crises. (*Check the reading list section for multi-level and multi-dimensional systemic ripples already in motion.)
Meta-stable State -1: Relative de-globalization with authoritarian characteristics (e.g. decline of EU and bedlam in low-income countries). I am afraid this is the most likely outcome, possibly tending towards state -2 as a result of systemic and exacerbated climate crises in the longer term.
Meta-stable State -2: Neo-feudal (end of the world as we know it)
Meta-stable State 1: Resilient globalization with critical realist solidarity marked by social integration in the EU, relative trans-formation in the US (assumption: Chinese technocrats are mostly rational actors). I anticipate this state tending towards state 2 in the longer term.
Meta-stable State 2: Regenerative, convivial societies (NOT utopia 👉🏽 adaptive, post-growth social operating systems)
TO DO: can we make transition from state 0 to 1 rather than more likely outcome: 0 to -1?
I will briefly come back to the question above at the end of the following reading list that has informed my sense-making.
Reading / watch list:
1. How pandemic was triggered by cancerous anthropic growth:
“We must remember, when the dust settles, that nCoV-2019 was not a novel event or a misfortune that befell us. It was — it is — part of a pattern of choices that we humans are making.”
2. How and why this event is likely to be the biggest economic and geo-political dis-ruption since WWII
“In the end, whenever there’s a disruption for whatever reason, it’s the least-developed countries with weak currencies that get hurt the most.”
3. Strategic lessons and possibilities
“OODA loop, consists of four parts: Observation, Orientation, Decision, and Action, at which point the process repeats with new observations based on the results of the previous action.(Bayesian) […] Our priors need to be mild and noncommittal”
4. Meta
I have been following people from “Game B” community for a while. I attribute framing of “Kairos” to Jordan Hall:
Jim Rutt is incredible as well (short, 1m25s)!
This evolutionary biologist couple is remarkable
Another wonderful and educational conversation:
Spiritual:
My meta-framework:
5. Miscellaneous
Nature newsletter and BBC News
TO DO
So how do we go from 0 to 1 rather than 0 to -1?
At the meta level, I think following trends are helpful:
- this crises shattered our arrogance, forced us to drastically change our behaviour in response to biophysical reality
- it has exposed underlying structural vulnerabilities (vices) and also amplified what actually matters (virtues)
- if we can overcome the futile impulse to re-store BAU, reality will lead us to more convivial social operating systems
At the strategic level, I think two nodes of intervention are crucial: relative trans-formation US and Europe. I am not much hopeful about the former (unless Bernie manages unlikely comeback). I think decisive front will be in Europe, specifically the future of European Union.
This continent over the course of last 500 odd years, was responsible for grotesque atrocities. This is the reason, it was able to learn more than the other parts of the world, importance of co-operation rather than competition. We are now approaching the juncture where Europe will face a choice: fiscal / social union or dis-integration:
Breakdown of just-in-time supply chains Globalization should liberate and enable Greens in EU to demand structural change in the ends of economic engine.
Post-growth and United Europe (in alliance with possibly like-minded East Asian and North American democracies) capable of helping or at least providing attractive model for other parts of the world is key to curtail rise of authoritarianism or / and destruction of ecosystems of which we are parts of.
